The Sibley Group at Keller Williams Realty 455-0100

Your Home For New Orleans Real Estate

  • Home
  • Sellers
    • Make a Good First Impression
    • What’s My Home Worth?
    • Determining The Value of Your Home
    • Foreclosure & Short Sales
      • What is a “Short Sale”?
      • Short Sale Process
    • Real Estate Glossary
  • Buyers
    • Find Homes For Sale
    • Get Pre-Approved
    • Making an Offer
    • Mortgage Resource Center
      • FHA Loans
      • RD Financing – Rural Development Loans
      • VA Loans
      • Construction & Renovation Loans
    • Real Estate Glossary
  • Communities
    • Northshore
      • Slidell
      • Mandeville
      • Covington
    • Southshore
      • Uptown
      • Garden District
      • Carrollton / University
      • Broadmoor
      • Lakeview
      • Mid City
      • Warehouse District and CBD
      • French Quarter
      • Marigny and Bywater
      • Metairie
  • Resources
    • Local Area Schools
    • Moving Center
    • Preferred Vendors
    • Hurricane Preparedness
    • Blog
  • Listings
    • View Our Listings
    • Search All Listings
  • About Us
    • The Sibley Group
      • Our Team
      • Reviews & Testimonials
    • Keller Williams Realty
    • Careers
    • Choosing a REALTOR
    • Client Services
  • Contact Us
  • Property SearchSearch Homes By Map
  • Listings By EmailListings Updates Sent To Your Inbox
  • Home ValuationWhat Is Your Home Worth?
  • My AccountLogin To Save Listings And Searches
You are here: Home / Blog / Why We Aren’t Headed for a Housing Crash

Why We Aren’t Headed for a Housing Crash

February 29, 2024 by John Sibley

Why We Aren't Headed for a Housing Crash Simplifying The Market

If you’re holding out hope that the housing market is going to crash and bring home prices back down, here’s a look at what the data shows. And spoiler alert: that’s not in the cards. Instead, experts say home prices are going to keep going up.

Today’s market is very different than it was before the housing crash in 2008. Here’s why.

It’s Harder To Get a Loan Now – and That’s Actually a Good Thing

It was much easier to get a home loan during the lead-up to the 2008 housing crisis than it is today. Back then, banks had different lending standards, making it easy for just about anyone to qualify for a home loan or refinance an existing one.

Things are different today. Homebuyers face increasingly higher standards from mortgage companies. The graph below uses data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to show this difference. The lower the number, the harder it is to get a mortgage. The higher the number, the easier it is:

a graph showing a line going up

The peak in the graph shows that, back then, lending standards weren’t as strict as they are now. That means lending institutions took on much greater risk in both the person and the mortgage products offered around the crash. That led to mass defaults and a flood of foreclosures coming onto the market.

There Are Far Fewer Homes for Sale Today, so Prices Won’t Crash

Because there were too many homes for sale during the housing crisis (many of which were short sales and foreclosures), that caused home prices to fall dramatically. But today, there’s an inventory shortage – not a surplus.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and the Federal Reserve to show how the months’ supply of homes available now (shown in blue) compares to the crash (shown in red):

a graph of a number of people

Today, unsold inventory sits at just a 3.0-months’ supply. That’s compared to the peak of 10.4 month’s supply back in 2008. That means there’s nowhere near enough inventory on the market for home prices to come crashing down like they did back then.

People Are Not Using Their Homes as ATMs Like They Did in the Early 2000s

Back in the lead up to the housing crash, many homeowners were borrowing against the equity in their homes to finance new cars, boats, and vacations. So, when prices started to fall, as inventory rose too high, many of those homeowners found themselves underwater.

But today, homeowners are a lot more cautious. Even though prices have skyrocketed in the past few years, homeowners aren’t tapping into their equity the way they did back then.

Black Knight reports that tappable equity (the amount of equity available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% loan-to-value ratio, or LTV) has actually reached an all-time high:

 a graph of a growing graph

That means, as a whole, homeowners have more equity available than ever before. And that’s great. Homeowners are in a much stronger position today than in the early 2000s. That same report from Black Knight goes on to explain:

“Only 1.1% of mortgage holders (582K) ended the year underwater, down from 1.5% (807K) at this time last year.”

And since homeowners are on more solid footing today, they’ll have options to avoid foreclosure. That limits the number of distressed properties coming onto the market. And without a flood of inventory, prices won’t come tumbling down. 

Bottom Line

While you may be hoping for something that brings prices down, that’s not what the data tells us is going to happen. The most current research clearly shows that today’s market is nothing like it was last time.

Receive A Free Guide To Buying or Selling Your Home

The process of buying or selling a home can be overwhelming at times. It’s difficult to know when is the best time to buy, or how to get the most money for your house when selling. You don't need to go through the process alone.

Our free eGuides will answer many of your questions and likely bring up a few things you didn’t even know you should consider when buying or selling a home.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

Filed Under: Blog, Housing Market Updates, Interest Rates, Pricing Your Home

Homes By Price Range

Homes Under $200,000

Homes $200,000 – $300,000

Homes $300,000 – $400,000

Homes $400,000 – $500,000

Homes $500,000 – $600,000

Homes $600,000 – $750,000

Homes $750,000 – $1,000,000

Homes Over $1,000,000

Homes by School District

  • Your Contact Information

WHAT OTHERS ARE SAYING

Listened, were easy to reach, and delivered on what they promised.

Default Avatar75
Ashley, New Orleans, LA
 

I worked with Gana, OMG what a GEM !!! Gana made this entire experience pleasurable. Her knowledge, patience and go-getter attitude won me over 100%.

Avatar
Monique C Thomas
 

I worked with Gana to purchase my first home in March 2018. Gana definitely helped me out during this process. She stayed in contact with me and was very good with her timeliness on updates. She was there throughout the whole process and was very knowledgeable when i had any questions. Gana made sure I understood any documents that I had to sign before I completed the action. I would definitely recommend her!

Default Avatar75
Lamar, Slidell, LA
 

There are not enough words that can describe Lana. She absolutely made our experience of finding a home as easy and stress free it could be. Her communication skills are top notch. She answered all of our questions, which were many, in a very timely manner. She went out of her way to set up appointments and send us links for everything that we needed to get done. She did everything in a spirit of excellence. There is no other person I would want or recommend as an agent than, Lana Leonard(...)

Default Avatar75
Shawn & Suzanne, Lacombe, LA
 

I bought my first home!!! Jordan provided exceptional service. At first, I was looking to rent, but she showed me I could get more of what I needed for less if I considered purchasing a home. It is an investment in my future and I am so glad she helped me feel confident in my ability to buy a home. The Sibley Group is a wonderful team that is there for your needs and supports you every step of the way. I highly recommend them, especially Jordan. She was attentive, resourceful, knowledgea(...)

Default Avatar75
Melissa, Covington, LA
 

Mrs. Gana is quite the gem, in fact, the entire Sibley Group were all so helpful and made our first home buying experience a breeze.

We were totally lost when it came to finding a mortgage company and having a realtor with such expertise and experience really put us at ease. She set up connections with several lenders and from there we were put on a path to home ownership!

I would recommend Mrs.Gana a million times again and the Sibley(...)

Default Avatar75
Michelle, Slidell, LA
 

The decision to sell our home and to use the Sibley Realty Group was a year long process. We were concerned about determining the right time to sell and determining a fair and appropriate asking price. We had questions about how to adequately prepare our home for photos and showings. We were concerned about security and showing our home while we were away on vacation. John Sibley addressed all of our questions and concerns. He walked us through the process from listing to closing. He was a(...)

Default Avatar75
Annemarie & Jerry, Slidell, LA
 

We were having troubles trying to figure out the particulars of buying a house and were a little intimidated about approaching a Real Estate agent. Those fears were put to rest after meeting Gana.

She not only guided us through the entire process, but made it a point to go over the contract with verbiage that we understood as first time home buyers- that was important.

The entire experience was smooth, as she laid to rest any fears we(...)

Default Avatar75
Willliam, Slidell, LA
 

Everyone at the Sibley Realty Group was exceptional. From the first phone call to the closing of the home we had the best service. I would recommend Jordan and her team to anyone. Awesome Job Guys! And thanks again.

Default Avatar75
Anonymous, New Orleans, LA
 

Gana made this transaction easy to understand for us as first time home buyers. Gana was very in tune with us when she could tell I didn't understand something. She slowed everything down and made sure I understood before we moved on.

Default Avatar75
Anonymous, Slidell, LA
 

From Our Blog

Why You’ll Want a Home Inspection

Some HighlightsOnce your offer is accepted, an inspector will assess the condition of the house, … [Read More...]

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year

From rising home prices to mortgage rate swings, the housing market has left a lot of people … [Read More...]

About Us

The Sibley Group has a team of Realtors to meet all of your real estate needs throughout the New Orleans Metropolitan area. We have agents that specialize on the Northshore and Southshore, including New Orleans, Slidell, Metairie, Covington, Mandeville, Pearl River, and Lacombe.


Trust a real estate team with a long-standing tradition of service, expertise, and professionalism in the local area.


John Sibley reviews
The Sibley Group
Keller Williams Realty 455-0100

3197 Richland Ave, Metairie, LA 70002

Northshore: 985.326.9755
Southshore: 504.571.9755
Broker: 504.455.0100

From Our Blog

Why You’ll Want a Home Inspection

Some HighlightsOnce your offer is accepted, an inspector will assess the condition of the house, … [Read More]

Housing Market Forecasts for the Second Half of the Year

From rising home prices to mortgage rate swings, the housing market has left a lot of people … [Read More]

Search Links

  • Search Listings
  • Search by Map
  • Login






Keller Williams Realty Professionals

The name of the company is Keller Williams Realty 455-0100.
Each Office is Independently Owned & Operated.

Broker & Associates are licensed by the State of Louisiana.
Copyright © 2019 All Rights Reserved