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You are here: Home / Blog / Will Forbearance Plans Lead to a Tsunami of Foreclosures?

Will Forbearance Plans Lead to a Tsunami of Foreclosures?

January 13, 2021 by John Sibley

Will Forbearance Plans Lead to a Tsunami of Foreclosures? | Simplifying The Market

At the onset of the economic disruptions caused by the COVID pandemic, the government quickly put into place forbearance plans to allow homeowners to remain in their homes without making their monthly mortgage payments. Today, almost three million households are actively in a forbearance plan. Though 29.4% of those in forbearance have continued to stay current on their payments, many have not.

Yanling Mayer, Principal Economist at CoreLogic, recently revealed:

“A distributional analysis of forborne loans’ payment status reveals that more than one third (39.1%) of all forborne loans are now 150+ days behind payment, while as many as 1-in-4 (25.5%) are 180+ days past due.”

These homeowners have been given permission to not make their payments, but the question now is: how many of them will be able to catch up after their forbearance program ends? There’s speculation that a forthcoming wave of foreclosures could be the result, and that could lead to another crash in home values like we saw a decade ago.

However, today’s situation is different than the 2006-2008 housing crisis as many homeowners have tremendous amounts of equity in their homes.

What are the experts saying?

Over the last 30 days, several industry experts have weighed in on this subject.

Michael Sklarz, President at Collateral Analytics:

“We may very well see a meaningful increase in the number of homes listed for sale as these borrowers choose to sell at what is arguably an intermediate top in the market and downsize to more affordable homes rather than face foreclosure.”

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American:

“The foreclosure process is based on two steps. First, the homeowner suffers an adverse economic shock…leading to the homeowner becoming delinquent on their mortgage. However, delinquency by itself is not enough to send a mortgage into foreclosure. With enough equity, a homeowner has the option of selling their home, or tapping into their equity through a refinance, to help weather the economic shock. It is a lack of sufficient equity, the second component of the dual trigger, that causes a serious delinquency to become a foreclosure.”

Don Layton, Senior Industry Fellow at the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University:

“With a greater cushion of equity, troubled homeowners have dramatically improved options: a greater ability to access funding (e.g. home equity lines) to keep paying monthly expenses until family finances might recover, improved ability to qualify for and support a loan modification, and, if push comes to shove, the ability to sell the home and monetize their increased net worth while reducing monthly payment obligations. So, what should lenders and servicers expect: a large number of foreclosures or only a modest increase? I believe the latter.”

With today’s positive equity situation, many homeowners will be able to use a loan modification or refinance to stay in their homes. If not, some will go to foreclosure, but most will be able to sell and walk away with their equity.

Won’t the additional homes on the market impact prices?

Distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) sell at a significant discount. If homeowners sell instead of going into foreclosure, the impact on the housing market will be much less severe.

We must also realize there is currently an unprecedented lack of inventory on the market. Just last week, realtor.com explained:

“Nationally, the number of homes for sale was down 39.6%, amounting to 449,000 fewer homes for sale than last December.”

It’s important to remember that there weren’t enough homes for sale even then, and inventory has only continued to decline.

The market has the potential to absorb half a million homes this year without it causing home values to depreciate.

Bottom Line

The pandemic has led to both personal and economic hardships for many American households. The overall residential real estate market, however, has weathered the storm and will continue to do so in 2021.

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Filed Under: Blog, Distressed Properties, For Buyers, For Sellers, Foreclosures, Housing Market Updates, Pricing Your Home, Short Sales

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WHAT OTHERS ARE SAYING

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We were very happy with the service provided. As first time home buyers, we were initially anxious, however, John and the rest of the group helped us understand the home buying process and what to expect. They made sure we were well prepared by the closing and that our interests were top priority.

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John was great to work with. He provided good sound advice relative to marketing our home. He kept me informed through every step of the process from the initial listing to the closing. It was a great experience and I recommend the Sibley Group to anyone interested in purchasing or selling real estate property.

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John Sibley and Lana Sibley Leonard were very instrumental in marketing my home both personably and professionally. Their drive and incentive made it possible for my home to sell in a quick, timely manner.

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Everyone throughout the process was extremely helpful. Dianna spent a lot of time, including late hours helping us find the right house.

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John & company were always negotiating on my behalf and won the battle such as letting me have an Estate Sale w/o charging me rent for one week and then the new owner moved in. The Sibley Realty Group was always professional in every way.

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Anonymous, Slidell, LA
 

Sibley's group is the best we've used.

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Cathy & Will, Slidell, LA
 

John and the Sibley Realty Group had a great command of the market prices and an excellent marketing strategy to get new groups of people to look at our property. By using new technology to market to different buyers and target new groups of potential buyers the Sibley Realty Group met our goal of selling within 3 months. The entire office helped make the transition smooth and Lauren is very helpful making sure everyone is on the same page as you go through the closing process. It is good t(...)

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Kevin, New Orleans, LA
 

Sibley Group delivered as promised.

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Stan, New Orleans, LA
 

We are extremely grateful to have found Sibley Realty group. Initially I had called other realtors who were not so responsive since we did not live in the area. Jordan contacted me back right away and made us feel at ease with our first home purchase. We lived 7 hours away from where we were buying and Jordan was very accomendating to our schedule of only being able to make it down on the weekends. The whole office are a bunch of true professionals that we owe more gratitiude to then we can(...)

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The Sibley Group has a team of Realtors to meet all of your real estate needs throughout the New Orleans Metropolitan area. We have agents that specialize on the Northshore and Southshore, including New Orleans, Slidell, Metairie, Covington, Mandeville, Pearl River, and Lacombe.


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The Sibley Group
Keller Williams Realty 455-0100

3197 Richland Ave, Metairie, LA 70002

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From Our Blog

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Historically low mortgage rates are a big motivator for homebuyers right now. In 2020 alone, rates … [Read More]

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In 1963, Martin Luther King, Jr. inspired a powerful movement with his famous “I Have a Dream” … [Read More]

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