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You are here: Home / Blog / Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?

Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?

April 6, 2020 by John Sibley

Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | Simplifying The Market

Ten million Americans lost their jobs over the last two weeks. The next announced unemployment rate on May 8th is expected to be in the double digits. Because the health crisis brought the economy to a screeching halt, many are feeling a personal financial crisis. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explained that the government is trying to find ways to assist those who have lost their jobs and the companies which were forced to close (think: your neighborhood restaurant). In a recent interview he said:

“This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole.”

That’s promising, but we’re still uncertain as to when the recently unemployed will be able to return to work.

Another concern: how badly will the U.S. economy be damaged if people can’t buy homes?

A new concern is whether the high number of unemployed Americans will cause the residential real estate market to crash, putting a greater strain on the economy and leading to even more job losses. The housing industry is a major piece of the overall economy in this country.

Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, in a post titled Responding to the Covid-19 Pandemic, addressed the toll this crisis will have on our nation, explaining:

“Housing is a foundational element of every person’s well-being. And with nearly a fifth of US gross domestic product rooted in housing-related expenditures, it is also critical to the well-being of our broader economy.”

How has the unemployment rate affected home sales in the past?

It’s logical to think there would be a direct correlation between the unemployment rate and home sales: as the unemployment rate went up, home sales would go down, and when the unemployment rate went down, home sales would go up.

However, research reviewing the last thirty years doesn’t show that direct relationship, as noted in the graph below. The blue and grey bars represent home sales, while the yellow line is the unemployment rate. Take a look at numbers 1 through 4:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | Simplifying The Market

  1. The unemployment rate was rising between 1992-1993, yet home sales increased.
  2. The unemployment rate was rising between 2001-2003, and home sales increased.
  3. The unemployment rate was rising between 2007-2010, and home sales significantly decreased.
  4. The unemployment rate was falling continuously between 2015-2019, and home sales remained relatively flat.

The impact of the unemployment rate on home sales doesn’t seem to be as strong as we may have thought.

Isn’t this time different?

Yes. There is no doubt the country hasn’t seen job losses this quickly in almost one hundred years. How bad could it get? Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment rate to be 15% in the third quarter of 2020, flattening to single digits by the fourth quarter of this year, and then just over 6% percent by the fourth quarter of 2021. Not ideal for the housing industry, but manageable.

How does this compare to the other financial crises?

Some believe this is going to be reminiscent of The Great Depression. From the standpoint of unemployment rates alone (the only thing this article addresses), it does not compare. Here are the unemployment rates during the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the projected rates moving forward:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | Simplifying The Market

Bottom Line

We’ve given you the facts as we know them. The housing market will have challenges this year. However, with the help being given to those who have lost their jobs and the fact that we’re looking at a quick recovery for the economy after we address the health problem, the housing industry should be fine in the long term. Stay safe.

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Filed Under: Blog, For Buyers, For Sellers, Housing Market Updates

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John Sibley and Lana Sibley Leonard were very instrumental in marketing my home both personably and professionally. Their drive and incentive made it possible for my home to sell in a quick, timely manner.

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Everyone throughout the process was extremely helpful. Dianna spent a lot of time, including late hours helping us find the right house.

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John & company were always negotiating on my behalf and won the battle such as letting me have an Estate Sale w/o charging me rent for one week and then the new owner moved in. The Sibley Realty Group was always professional in every way.

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Sibley's group is the best we've used.

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Cathy & Will, Slidell, LA
 

John and the Sibley Realty Group had a great command of the market prices and an excellent marketing strategy to get new groups of people to look at our property. By using new technology to market to different buyers and target new groups of potential buyers the Sibley Realty Group met our goal of selling within 3 months. The entire office helped make the transition smooth and Lauren is very helpful making sure everyone is on the same page as you go through the closing process. It is good t(...)

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Sibley Group delivered as promised.

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We are extremely grateful to have found Sibley Realty group. Initially I had called other realtors who were not so responsive since we did not live in the area. Jordan contacted me back right away and made us feel at ease with our first home purchase. We lived 7 hours away from where we were buying and Jordan was very accomendating to our schedule of only being able to make it down on the weekends. The whole office are a bunch of true professionals that we owe more gratitiude to then we can(...)

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The Sibley Group has a team of Realtors to meet all of your real estate needs throughout the New Orleans Metropolitan area. We have agents that specialize on the Northshore and Southshore, including New Orleans, Slidell, Metairie, Covington, Mandeville, Pearl River, and Lacombe.


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The Sibley Group
Keller Williams Realty 455-0100

3197 Richland Ave, Metairie, LA 70002

Northshore: 985.326.9755
Southshore: 504.571.9755
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From Our Blog

Should I Wait for Lower Mortgage Interest Rates?

Historically low mortgage rates are a big motivator for homebuyers right now. In 2020 alone, rates … [Read More]

How to Make the Dream of Homeownership a Reality This Year

In 1963, Martin Luther King, Jr. inspired a powerful movement with his famous “I Have a Dream” … [Read More]

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